Tuesday TNT NBA Player Props: Knicks Hawks, Nuggets Clippers

With college basketball’s March Madness on a break as the teams travel for the Sweet 16, the NBA retakes basketball’s center stage early this week. Each week throughout the season, TheLines will look at some matchups for the televised slates and try to figure if there are any TNT NBA player props worth a look.

On TNT Tuesday, we get Knicks vs. Hawks in a playoff rematch, then the Nuggets host the Clippers. You can search TNT NBA player props using our tool below. Click on the odds anywhere in this post to bet player props now.

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Atlanta Hawks At New York Knicks

Last year’s Eastern Conference upstarts and first-round playoff opponents are this year’s also-rans. The Hawks have at least solidified themselves as almost certain play-in participants, which is more than the Knicks can say.

These teams wind up in the same efficiency ballpark but get there in different ways, with the Knicks combining a decent defense with bad offense while the Hawks have an elite offense but bad defense.

Trae Young returned to the Hawks’ lineup last game after spraining his ankle but was not very effective in a 5-for-14 shooting performance. The only other significant injury question mark is fellow Hawks G Bogdan Bogdanovic, listed day-to-day. John Collins also remains out, so the Hawks will be at least bit short-handed. Potentially, the Knicks could trot out the significantly better team here despite the metrics all saying otherwise when these teams are healthy.

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Draws Young Props

Assuming Young plays, how effective can he be? If he’s close to being right, he shouldn’t be in a bad spot. He absolutely tortured the Knicks in the playoffs last year and that has continued this year. In the two games in which Young played against New York (he missed one injured), he averaged 31 points and 11 3-point attempts.

The latter stat tracks with how the Knicks have played defense. So, it’s a little less likely to be a small-sample fluke than usual. Only two teams have allowed more looks from deep and only one has allowed more above-the-break 3s, which comprise the vast majority of Young’s attempts.

Although the Hawks do play down in pace here, look for a shot at Young’s over on 3s and potentially his points.

His assists might suffer a bit, though, if he just takes the looks the Knicks give him. Indeed, he tallied just 12 in those two games, well below the 9.5 he averages per game.

Julius Randle And RJ Barrett Props

Generally speaking, most of the Knicks’ player props should be looking pretty positive in this game. They play up a little bit in pace here against the Hawks, and the Hawks have one of the worst defenses in the NBA, allowing nearly 115 points per 100 possessions.

The players most likely to get looks in the prop markets are obviously Julius Randle and RJ Barrett. Of the two, Barrett has been by far the more efficient scorer.

The Hawks defense doesn’t lean poorer in any particular part of the floor, according to Cleaning The Glass, so we probably want to use a more general outlook when handicapping these markets. They give up a whole lot of points in basically all areas, especially outside the 3-point line, where Barrett’s been markedly better than Randle.

However, Randle is the superior passer. He might find Mitchell Robinson rolling to the rim against this porous bunch. His assist prop is usually 5.5 with the under juiced, so if you can find a nice plus price on the over, that might be worth a look.

LA Clippers At Denver Nuggets

What could have been an awesome game featuring multiple All-NBA players will instead match two teams squarely in the play-in race, pending the Timberwolves’ result on Monday night. Still, each of these teams could wind up more dangerous down the stretch depending on whether injured stars can return and in form.

Speaking of form, neither team is in a particularly good one right now, both enduring more losses than wins of late.

Nikola Jokic will attempt to continue his MVP-caliber campaign, in which he must still chase down Joel Embiid in the markets.

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Nikola Jokic Props

Jokic might sneakily not match up as well as you might think here, though. In terms of scoring, anyway.

Not only do the Clippers sport a good defense overall, they’re particularly stingy at the rim. That might be partially due to the excellent post coverage of unheralded C Ivica Zubac. He has been stonewalling everyone at the rim this year, with a 96th-percentile points for possession allowedaccording to the league’s official play tracking stats.

And while post-ups can sometimes suffer from small samples since they’re generally infrequent these days, Zubac checked in at the 82nd percentile last season. He passes the eye test with good discipline.

However, the Clippers are a notably awful team on the boards, tied with Detroit for dead last in rebound rate. It’s a little dicey to fire Jokic’s over, potentially, since the Clippers play awfully slowly as well, but he should have his way on the glass.

He also has a little extra motivation against Marcus Morris.

Reggie Jackson And Ivica Zubac Props

Zubac’s own stats have been buoyed in part by his solid offensive rebounding, but that’s an area in which he might come up a bit short here. Not only will he spend a ton of time and energy focusing on defending Jokic – which could get him into foul trouble – but the Nuggets as a whole protect the defensive glass at the league’s highest rate.

That means Zubac may not get as much mileage out of his above-average offensive rebounding.

Reggie Jackson continues to serve as the Clippers’ unquestioned offensive engine. This would likely be a good time for more forays to the rim since that’s where the Nuggets are weak, but Jackson tends to stick more to the mid range and outside the arc.

The Nuggets have an elite defense in terms of percentages allowed from deep while allowing a medium volume of attempts. How you feel about that low percent should probably inform how you approach Jackson’s scoring prop. If the number reflects a true talent for defending the arc, Jackson should come in under more often than not.

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