• Giants-Cowboys SGP (+3500) — Micah Parsons 2+ sacks/Dorance Armstrong sack/Dallas -16.5/Giants u17.5: Ferocious Dallas pass rush feasts on Daniel Jones, undermanned Big Blue O-line.
• Dallas D-line that stunts NFL’s most over expected gains big edge over Giants O-line ranked last in perfectly blocked stunts.
• Bills-Lions SGP (+3504) — Josh Allen 325+ passing yards/Gabe Davis 100+ rec. yards/Davis TD/Jamaal Williams u55.5 rushing yards: Davis should be the main beneficiary of Amani Oruwariye’s return to the starting lineup.
Last updated: Nov. 23, 4:45 p.m
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that doesn’t mean betting edges don’t exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.
The goal in this space is to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only in the SGP market.
BUFFALO BILLS @ DETROIT LIONS (+9.5, 54.5)
Story: Gabe Davis takes advantage of his matchup with Amani Oruwariye en route to a big day
• Amani Oruwariye target practice: He’s the 2nd-worst corner in PFF’s Successful Coverage Over Expected, and last in PFF grade, causing Oruwariye to lose his starting job. But with the injury to Jeff Okudah, Oruwariye will be forced into the starting lineup again.
• Gabe Davis will be the primary beneficiary: Lined up the most across Oruwariye. With a 98 PFF Deep grade, Davis is always a threat to hit on a few explosive plays to stack up the yards and increase the TD possibility.
• Unfavorable game script for Williams: Buffalo should succeed through the air, forcing Detroit to throw often. And with D’Andre Swift a week healthier and Justin Jackson’s snap share growing each of the past 3 weeks, Jamaal Williams going under his rushing prop is an attractive last leg to this story.
FanDuel SGP build (+3504)
• Josh Allen 325+ Yards Passing
• Gabriel Davis 100+ Yards
• Gabriel Davis TD
• Jamaal Williams Under 55.5 Rushing Yards
NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-10, 45.5)
Story: The Dallas pass rush completely overwhelms the Giants en route to a dominant Cowboys win
As PFF’s Arjun Menon has modeled, no team stunts more than expected than the Dallas Cowboys.
And again as Arjun shows, no team has been worse at perfectly blocking stunts than the Giants.
• no 1 in the NFL in sacks, pressure rate: and pressure rate, and the Cowboys pass rush might completely overwhelm. The Giants will be without four O-linemen which will certainly be hurting their cause.
• If Jones is continuously taking sacks: The Giants offense will be off schedule, unable to sustain drives and the Cowboys likely can blow them out.
DraftKings SGP build (+3500)
• Micah Parsons 2+ sacks
• Dorance Armstrong sack
• Cowboys -16.5
• Giants u17.5 points
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5, 42.5)
Story: Offenses flow through Hockenson and Stevenson
• Patriots have allowed the second-fewest WR receptions to WR’s, 6th-fewest yards to the position: Enter, TJ Hockenson, who has garnered 9, 10, and 9 targets in his 3 games in Minnesota. With Bill Belichick looking to key on Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins should continuously look Hockenson’s way en route to a big game for the big tight end.
• New England allowing second-highest TD rate in red zone to tight ends: And Hockenson has already garnered 6 red zone targets in his 3 weeks in Minnesota.
• Rhamondre receives: A 76% snap share even with Damien Harris in the fold, as Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly earned the workhouse role at least in part because of his pass-catching dominance.
• Stevenson now attracts 6-8 targets, no matter the game script: As the Patriots continue leaning on his dynamic receiving ability. Look for Stevenson to capitalize on his snap share by racking up the receiving yards and getting in the endzone.
FanDuel SGP build (+4045)
• Rhamondre Stevenson TD
• Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Yards Receiving
• TJ Hockenson TD
• TJ Hockenson 60+ Yards Receiving