On the schedule it says the Bucks are playing the second leg of a back-to-back, but the team should be a little more rested than normal. Giannis Antetokounmpo paced the Bucks with 39 against the Thunder, but only played 27 minutes. None of the other top contributors played over 30 mins, as Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis all played well and incredibly efficient. It was the Bucks fifth straight win, as they have turned around a recent slump and are destroying teams in the box score, all without exerting a ton of energy. This is a favorable matchup at home against a Hawks team that is currently struggling, and the only reason this line is less than 5 points is because of the Bucks game last night. The Bucks expect Grayson Allen to play tonight as he is back from injury and no longer listed on the report.
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Atlanta comes into tonight after losing to Detroit in overtime. The Hawks have only won five of their last ten games, but some of that was due to missing players. John Collins returned to the lineup last Friday, and Kevin Huerter is expected to return tonight. Trae Young is still the main source of offense for Atlanta, who will need a lot more if they want to hang with a deep Bucks team. The game tonight in Milwaukee ends a three-game road trip, as Atlanta will return home for three more on Friday.
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NBA Player Props & Picks Today | Hawks vs. Bucks
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Best Hawks vs. Bucks NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
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Bucks -4: -110 (DraftKings)
Nothing about this line makes sense and it is probably a trap, but it is also impossible to ignore why the Bucks will cruise. The public may be baited into believing the Bucks will be tired from their game last night, a senseless beating of the Thunder, but Milwaukee got a lot of bench minutes as starters were able to rest. There is also the fact that even with the return of Collins, the Hawks have struggled to find any consistent scoring. They lack the depth of the Bucks and cannot afford to have Young play poorly tonight. The Bucks can match outside shooting that the Hawks have and are trying to avoid a season sweep at the hands of Atlanta. Milwaukee lost both matchups earlier this season but is playing significantly better during this recent stretch. This feels like a Bobby Portis kind of night, as his team wins their sixth consecutive game.
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Grayson Allen 2-Leg Same Game Parlay: +124 (FanDuel)
Two of the top plays on OddsShopper for this game are Grayson Allen props. Combining them increases the payout without significantly hurting the chances of winning the bet. The first leg is over 9.5 points combined with over 1.5 made 3’s. Allen is projected to go over his point total by two full points, Awesemo’s projection is at 11.5 for tonight. The xWin is 64% and a decent 29% xROI on the play. Allen relies heavily on shooting the 3, so it would stand to reason that if he’s going to score it will come from behind the arc. His Over 1.5 3’s has a huge 70% chance of hitting, it’s a little juiced at -146 but works best in a play like this.
Using OddsShopper to sort by xROI got two great Allen plays, which are heavily correlated. While the return is not multiplied by a larger number, by adding the 3-point prop, the return for Allen going over his point total essentially gets boosted to +124.
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Kevin Huerter Over 2.5 Assists: +135 (DraftKings)
Huerter is back in the lineup after missing time due to injury and the obvious expectation is he will shoot a bunch of 3’s. OddsShopper sees him as enough of a facilitator tonight to recommend this play, and it has one of the strongest xROI numbers across the board. Huerter’s projection from Awesemo has him finishing with 2.9 dimes, good enough for a 30% xROI along with the plus-money return. The xWin sits at 54% only because the projection is a little tighter, but the matchup against Milwaukee should provide a couple of more passing opportunities, especially if it is moving the ball to an open shooter.
Jrue Holiday 3+ Made 3’s: +180 (FanDuel)
Holiday is in a great spot not only due to matchup against the Hawks backcourt, but also a recent struggle from the floor in shooting 3’s. It is a great chance to catch the Bucks point guard on a little downswing and push his 3-point prop up to an additional make. The return is good enough to rely on volume for Holiday from behind the 3-point line, as he was just 1-for-5 last night. But Holiday is shooting on average 2.8-for-6 in four games in March and should see 6.5 attempts at least tonight. The volume combined with how well he is shooting, in three of his last four games, is why this will smash tonight.
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