Arkansas vs. New Mexico State prediction, odds: 2022 NCAA Tournament picks, March Madness bets from top model

In the West region of the 2022 NCAA Tournament bracket, No. 4 seed Arkansas survived an early first-round scare, but the Razorbacks are on upset watch again in their second-round matchup with No. 12 seed New Mexico State. The Aggies gave March Madness one of its early surprises with a 70-63 win over Connecticut, and are going for their first Sweet 16 appearance since 1992. New Mexico State forward Teddy Allen had his second-best offensive game of the season in the Aggies win, with 37 points, and he’ll be the top priority on defense for Arkansas, who saw Ben Shungu and Ryan Davis each score 20 points for Vermont.

All the action from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York, gets underway at 8:40 pm ET on Saturday. The Razorbacks are 6.5-point favorites and the over-under is set at 138.5 in the latest Arkansas vs. New Mexico State odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any New Mexico State vs. Arkansas picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $ 1,500 for $ 100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Arkansas vs. Vermont and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2022. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model’s college basketball picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Vermont vs. Arkansas:

  • Arkansas vs. Vermont spread: Arkansas -6.5
  • Arkansas vs. Vermont over-under: 138.5 points
  • Arkansas vs. Vermont money line: Arkansas -280, Vermont +230
  • New Mexico State: 5-0 overall and against the spread as an underdog in 2021-22
  • Arkansas: The Razorbacks are 1-3-1 ATS as a favorite in last five games

Featured Game | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. New Mexico St. Aggies

Why Arkansas can cover

The Razorbacks survived a second half comeback from the Vermont Catamounts to advance following a narrow 75-71 win. Stanley Umude picked the right time to have one of his best games of the year with 21 points and nine rebounds in the victory. JD Notae finished with 17 points despite an inefficient shooting night, after he made 5-of-16 shots, but just 1-of-7 3-point shots. Regardless, it was a solid bounce-back performance from Arkansas’ previous game, an 82-64 loss to Texas A&M in the SEC conference tournament.

One thing that Arkansas has been able to rely on all season is its ability to draw fouls and drain free throws. The Razorbacks have coaxed opponents into 19.8 personal fouls this season and make 75.5 percent of their free throws. Against Vermont, Arkansas drew 21 fouls from Vermont and made 20-of-25 shots from the charity stripe.

Why New Mexico State can cover

Allen has been the top scorer all season long for the Aggies, and averages 19.9 points for New Mexico State. Sir’Jabari Rice has been the team’s second-leading producer on offense, with 12.1 points per game, but he only needed to put in nine against UConn with Allen lighting up the scoreboard. The Aggies’ chances to advance might be tethered to how long Allen can keep up his scoring, but they were able to win the Western Athletic Conference championship against Abilene Christian after he scored just 10 points.

One thing that New Mexico State has been able to do effectively all season long is win the battle on the boards. The Aggies average 38.1 rebounds per game this season, which is a top-50 mark in the nation. Meanwhile, they kept opponents to just 31 boards per contest, also due to the hustle of Allen and Rice, who average 6.8 and 5.2 rebounds per game, respectively.

How to make New Mexico State vs. Arkansas picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 144 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Arkansas vs. New Mexico State? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.

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